Analytical Summary: Consequences of the Expiry of the 8L Energy Trade License for Russia and Europe

1. Impact on Russia

1.1. Financial and Trade Risks

• Restricting Russian banks' access to international energy transactions will increase transaction costs and create barriers for export payments.
• Russia’s key trade partners (China, India, Turkey) may take advantage of the situation to demand additional discounts.

1.2. Changes in Payment Schemes

• Increased settlements in yuan, rupees, and dirhams through banks in friendly countries (China, UAE, Turkey).
• Potential rise in cryptocurrency transactions and barter trade mechanisms.

1.3. Geopolitical Consequences

• Increased Western economic pressure on Russia, which may lead to retaliatory measures from Moscow (reducing oil and gas supplies to unfriendly countries).
• Acceleration of the de-dollarization process, which in the long term may shift the balance of global energy trade.

2. Impact on Europe

2.1. Increased Volatility in Energy Markets

• Potential energy price spikes in case of supply disruptions from Russia.
• Continued dependency of some EU countries (Hungary, Slovakia) on Russian raw materials due to logistical and infrastructure constraints.

2.2. Search for Alternative Suppliers

• Increased LNG imports from the US, Qatar, and Norway.
• Expansion of pipeline routes through Norway, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.
• Strengthened cooperation with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran (if sanctions ease).

2.3. Inflationary Risks